In an unprecedented scene, U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance discussed ways to end the war with Russia with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky live from the Oval Office in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 28.
The scene was just the culmination of ideas, often expressed by President Trump since the outbreak of war three years ago, that go beyond the nature of Western-Russian relations to radically reshape US-European security and defense ties unilaterally reformulate their defense doctrine. This article analyzes the nature of Europe’s new defense policy, how Europeans can confront Trump’s project in Ukraine, within the framework of security and defense relations between Washington and Brussels, or in other words, what mechanisms Europe has in the short and long term.
“What kind of policy will Europe adopt on defense?
Despite its weak position in the balance of power with the US, Europe still has several options in confronting the Trump administration’s new defense policy, whether in Ukraine to mitigate damage or in defending Europe to build strategic independence from Washington. On March 3, the continent’s nations held a summit at Lancaster House in London to call for continental unity in the face of Trump’s plan to form a “coalition of ready” to secure a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, led by France and Britain. British Prime Minister Stammer offered the alliance as a guarantee of continued military assistance to Ukraine to improve its position on the battlefield and secure Kiev a seat at the negotiating table in any peace talks, as well as further assistance for its defense capabilities. However, the alliance may be the first construction of a European defense alliance independent of the United States.
Through recent diplomatic moves and amendments to EU law, the new European defense policy is based on two doctrines, the rapid response approach and a strategic approach.
- Emergency Approach in Ukraine: – Ukraine represents the cornerstone of the new European security-defense doctrine, as it acts as a bulwark against Vladimir Putin’s ambitions in the east of the continent. The way the war is stopped lays the foundations for future security relations between Moscow and the rest of the region so today it is in Europe’s interest to mobilize all possible support for Kiev to improve its position on the military front, in order to improve its position on the political negotiating front. Since the Europeans have implicitly accepted Trump’s decision to end the war soon, Europe must do everything in its power to ensure that Ukraine receives the resources and support needed to strengthen its defense of such scale and strength. The prime minister has set four priorities to improve burden sharing in NATO and better support Kiev on the front lines: continue aid to Ukraine, maintain economic pressure on Russia, ensure Kiev has a seat at the negotiating table and strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities. The Council of Europe has approved its 16th package of sanctions against Russia. In February, the European Union decided to offer Ukraine a military assistance package worth six billion euros, with various capabilities, but the package was increased to about 20 billion euros after the outlines of the agreement between Trump and Putin emerged. The European defense industry also increased ammunition production capacity by 40 percent as part of an initiative to send 1 million artillery rounds to Ukraine.
- Strategic approach: This mechanism is concerned with the development of a long-term strategy of prevention against the primary threat in the eastern part of the continent, namely Russia. The EU and the UK should formulate a unified political, economic and military position on this opposition to Moscow, one that will continue beyond any possible ceasefire in Ukraine. The strategy is likely to provide a means of deterring Russia from future attacks in four key areas: conventional military, nuclear, cyber, and energy security. Furthermore, this strategy must compensate for a possible U.S. withdrawal from Europe, in terms of personnel, technology and strategic deterrence, as well as the reliance of a number of European countries on U.S. defense industries, as EU countries buy 55% of their weapons from the United States.
The EU is moving beyond expected losses due to US President Donald Trump’s policies in Ukraine to a comprehensive defensive withdrawal from the continent that will deprive Moscow of a security umbrella that has remained unshaken since the end of World War II for Moscow’s European ambitions.
Europeans are therefore moving towards designing a new defense policy that reflects proactive measures, including the European Rearmament Initiative and the European Defense Industrial Strategy, to enhance defense capabilities in light of changing geopolitical dynamics. This policy aims to ensure Europe’s ability to maintain the independence of its security interests and to provide sustained support to Ukraine amid changing alliances. However, Europe is expected to realistically address the imbalance of power in its confrontation with Trump over Ukraine, and engage in a settlement with Russia and the US in exchange for adequate security guarantees for Kiev and the future of the continental security situation.
