Macron’s visit to Iraq and his meeting with Iraqi responsibilities and Kurdistan Region president Nechirvan Barzani who later Kurdistan president received a formal invitation from Turkish president Erdogan shed lights on further critical interpretation of such simultaneously visit. As MENA region is further sinking in a stalemate of political conflict salted with ideological perspective, analysts argues that the visit was crucial for Kurds, particularly, because Turkey realize KRI regional and international position.
The Kurdistan president’s visit to Turkey is more related to the regional actors and superpowers political strategies rather than discussing the issues between KRI and Turkey.
There will be raised questions apropos what is Kurdistan relation to the Mediterranean conflict where France is also involved? hypothetically responded to such question requires to evaluate regional coalitions structure where theoretically Turkey, Greek and France are central actors.
If a war happens or an initiative for war be taken, the result will be clear that above mentioned countries have to pay the price like what Iraq did with Iran and Kuwait. If Turkey faces a war, the first question KRI has to think about is its oil export? Through which KRI will face new challenges and should think about alternatives that it currently doesn’t have. In such an environment the KRI businessmen too must deal with Iran and use Iraqis ports in south, consequently, it affects the KRI revenue, especially, Ibrahim Khalil border which is vital.
There is a question if such a war happen what shall options KRI have? Strategically, it is too difficult for KRI to keep a balance in such a situation; similarly, it also will affect the Turkish power which hardly could pressure KRI. As it is evident during the 2017 referendum, Erdogan asked KRI to take an Iraqi perspective.
Back to Macrons agenda, it is obviously that France president attempts to build a regional coalition to counter Turkey MENA policy and also supports reinforcement of Iraq sovereignty. Iraq is one of those ME countries that confronts Turkeys harmful attacks and also decreasing water resources. What options Iraq has? Of course, diplomatically Iraq at the hardest action reduce number of Turkish consulates in Iraq and reduce its diplomatic representation level, cancel Turkish companies permission to work on Iraqi soils, visa enforcement for Turkish citizens. Those actions will be effective in change of Turkish attitude toward Iraq.
Following the Turkish attacks on KRI, France has been one of few states that have taken a stand apropos such issue. In return in any future conflict between France and Turkey, France might ask KRI to support its policy against Turkey. France is one of central allies that have stayed for protection of KRI since 1990. Then France will ask KRI now we are in conflict with Turkey. in Syria, Iraq, the Mediterranean Sea and Libya, it is time for KRI to step forward and compensate a bit of our support. Hypothetically that might be a part of KRI-France conversation in Baghdad.
In such a case, the Kurdistan Region has an excellent position; the Kurdish behavior is important to take into account as France have stayed a supportive actor to re-build and stabilize Iraq also during war on ISIS. If such a war happens among Turkey and Greece/France, NATO and EU without hesitation will support Greece/France. On MENA region level, Arab states such as Egypt, UAE and Israel have announced their support for to Greece. On the other hand Greece has had positive relations with PKK, and in such case Greece might take such a decision to encourage PKK to start a domestic war against Turkey. This will put Erdogan in hard position to fight with two fronts, and his dreams will sunk into the Aegean Sea.
Whatever Erdogan does nowadays is an ideological, nationalist and Islamic war against the whole coalitions and his neighbors. This attitude has created a serious threat to the security of the region rather than supportive instrument to regional stability. Erdogan policy strain Turkey’s opportunities at present; Turkey is more isolated than ever.