Before the end of the Gaza war, which began as a result of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, is not yet over, all signs of another war between Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel is expected to be a devastating war for Lebanon. If this war breaks out, it will be the third war between the two sides. The first war lasted between 1985 and 2000, ending with Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The second war broke out in 2006, after the outbreak of war between Hamas and Israel, both sides continued to launch missile attacks against each other intermittently, but has not yet extended to the level of war.
What distinguishes the ongoing Gaza war from previous Israeli wars is that Israel has not been involved in a nine-month war since the establishment of the state of Israel.
Because Israel has always been in favor of short-term war against its opponents due to the minor population of Israel, who are seven million people and most of the country’s army soldiers arrive in reserve and leave their jobs when called up to work in the army. Therefore, Israel has always resorted to devastating short-term wars, but this time, unlike previous wars, there is a will within the Israeli state to continue the war despite the loss of life and property that the Israeli state has suffered.
There are all signs of a new war between Israel and Hezbollah, the whole of Lebanon becoming a new battlefield between the two sides before the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip is completely over. Thus the outbreak of this war is a sign of change has happened in the Israeli military mindset that Israel will create two fronts of war at the same time or at least two wars in a row, assuming that the Lebanese war starts after the end of the Gaza war.
But a war between Israel and Hezbollah would be different from the Gaza war in many ways:
First: – although Hamas and Hezbollah are both allies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hezbollah is a Shiite group of the Twelve Imams and its beliefs are linked to the Islamic Republic of Iran, unlike Hamas, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and an ally of Turkey and Qatar.
Second: – the war between Israel and Lebanon covers most of Lebanon, because the border of Hezbollah’s hegemony covers most of Lebanon, unlike Hamas, which only controlled the Gaza Strip, which is part of Palestinian territory.
Third: – Lebanon is an independent country and the outbreak of war against Lebanon is considered a war between two states, but the war between Israel and Hamas is largely a civil war between Israel and the Gaza Strip, which are all part of Israeli territory.
Conclusion: if this war happens, the situation in the Middle East will become more complicated, and it is likely to include Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. The whole region will face a devastating war if Hezbollah and Israel do not calm down, and they will continue to deepen their conflicts and continue their attacks against each other.
