After erupt of a massive war between the United States and Israel against Iran, the outcome of this war is expected to be different from last year’s 12-day war between Israel and Iran. Despite the differences of opinion on the war between Israel and the United States against Iran, but the war was expected, decided in advance, because of the size of US troops gathered in the region and US military preparations for the Iranian war, the type of negotiations and the US conditions for the agreement were evidence that the US had decided to go to war in advance. After the outbreak of the war; The Islamic Republic of Iran understands that this war will not be like the previous war, so it will use all its pressure cards in this war. Therefore, it is working to increase the losses of this war. There are two scenarios for the outcome of the war. First, the Islamic Republic of Iran must agree to all US conditions, including handing over its nuclear, enriched uranium and missile programs. The second scenario is the fall of the Iranian regime and an occupation similar to the 2003 scenario in Iraq.
Iran is expected to agree to the first scenario and try to meet all of Trump’s conditions in exchange for staying, agree to hand over all enriched uranium to the United States, hand over its nuclear and missile programs and end its proxies in the region. Throughout Iran’s history, it has signed several similar agreements that historians considered shameful and surrender, such as the Tea Turkmen Treaty with Imperial Russia in 1828 and the 1907 Treaty of Russian and British interests and hegemony in Iran. It continued until the end of World War I, when Britain and Russia divided Iran, and then during World War II, Iran was preoccupied by the Soviet Union and Britain, and Khomeini agreed to the UN Security Council’s ceasefire with Iraq.
When Khomeini refused to stop the war from 1982 to 1988 and called for the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, he finally said he would drink the cup of poison and agree to a ceasefire. On the other hand, Donald Trump, who focuses on the economy, is not in favor of continuing the war, which has a huge cost on the United States and always points out that the idea of invading Iraq was wrong. Although this was done under George W. Bush and the Republicans, they will not repeat this mistake in Iran as they did in Iraq. Meanwhile, the Gulf countries are currently supporting the option because of the damage caused by the war since the beginning of the war, as well as the three regional alliance “Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey” defend the survival of the Islamic Republic gives. However, Israel, which played a major role in the war, is against this option and believes that the Islamic Republic of Iran must be destroyed by force, like Iraq.
If Iran does not agree to the surrender agreement, it will face a military coup by the Iranian military, especially after the assassination of Khamenei and the disappearance of the top power in Iran. The second possibility is an uprising inside Iran and the whole of Iran will not be under the control of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kurdish, Azerbaijani, Baluch and Arab areas will be controlled by the opposition parties. The third possibility is a US military invasion of Iran, which is very unlikely and the US and Trump do not support it. The Kurds must prepare for all possibilities, especially the surrender of the Islamic Republic of Iran and a military coup in Iran, which is dangerous for the Kurdish people and must take the initiative to liberate Kurdish areas 1991 is outside the jurisdiction of the Tehran government and creates a de facto zone.
