Abstract
The international balance of power in the 21st century has changed fundamentally: from a Cold War-era bipolar system, to an American unipolar system (1991-2008), to the current multipolar stage with China, Russia, India and the EU emerging as new balancers. The current conflicts mark a historical transition from an old order to an uncertain new one.
Introduction
The principle of the balance of international forces has been one of the fundamental pillars of international relations since the nineteenth century, a concept that aims to prevent one country from dominating the international system by dividing power among a number of major nations. However, quick developments in the 21st century, from wars, conflicts, economic and technological crises, have reshaped the concept of international balance and made it difficult to clearly define the center of power in the world.
First: The Concept of the International Balance of Power
The international balance of power refers to a situation where power is distributed among several countries or blocs in such a way that no single nation can assert its hegemony over the international system. This principle is one of the foundations for maintaining stability and relative peace among nations, leading to a form of mutual deterrence that prevents total war. One of the most prominent perspectives on this global concept comes from Hans Morgenthau, who views the balance of power as a natural mechanism for regulating the behavior of states within the international system, based on interest and power.
Second: The Evolution of the Balance of Power throughout History
- The Pre-World Wars Era
The balance was based on the rivalry of the great European powers (Britain, France, Germany, and Russia). This rivalry led to the outbreak of World War I as a result of the failure to balance the arms race.
Historical Example: The Congress of Vienna (1815). After the defeat of Napoleon, the great powers (Britain, Russia, Prussia, and France) signed an agreement to distribute power. This system maintained relative peace for nearly 100 years (until 1914).
- The Cold War Era (1945–1991)
During this period, bipolarity emerged between the United States and the Soviet Union. The existence of nuclear weapons created a balance that prevented direct confrontation between them, leading to relative stability in international relations despite numerous regional crises.
Historical Example: The Cuban Missile Crisis (1962). The Soviet Union attempted to deploy nuclear missiles in Cuba. After 13 days of global tension, this crisis was resolved diplomatically. In other words, nuclear weapons maintained the balance in a severe conflict without war.
- The Post-Cold War Era
This stage involved the dissolution of the Soviet Union, resulting in American unipolarity. This led to a disruption of the international balance and widespread U.S. intervention in various regions such as Iraq and Afghanistan.
- The Contemporary Era (21st Century)
Today, we are witnessing a return to multipolarity with the rise of new powers such as China, Russia, India, and the European Union, which has pushed the international order toward a new, yet unstable, balance.
Third: The International Balance in Light of Current Global Conflicts
The current phase is characterized by various types of conflicts: military, economic, technological, and ideological. All of these reflect the efforts of great powers to reshape the balance of power.
- The U.S.-China Conflict
The most significant aspect of today’s international rivalry is that China attempts to challenge American hegemony through the “Belt and Road” initiative and by developing its military and technological capabilities, while Washington attempts to contain it through Asian and European alliances.
Result
The balance of international forces is no longer a fixed concept, but a dynamic process influenced by a combination of political, economic and technological factors. In light of the current global conflicts, the world seems to be moving towards a new system whose specifications are yet to be determined, but which will entice and compel everyone to become part of the game and will certainly be different from the unipolar system that prevailed after the Cold War. So the next war will start on “clicks”, not bullets. The new balance between AI, the economy, the environment and traditional power will be the main agenda of 21st century politicians.
