The Middle East as a political, geographical, economic, security, historical and cultural region is considered a source of conflict not only regionally but also globally. If we look at the situation in the region over the past hundred years, there are still all kinds and levels of conflict. The latest event that unveiled the attitude of many regional states was the Gaza war, which was launched by the Hamas movement against Israel. Some regional states are treating the war as a frontier, for example, Iran. This incident also revived many regional equations and calculations and created major challenges for the normalization that is about to begin, for example, the normalization of Israeli relations with some Arab states and Turkey, the beginning of the process of reviewing Turkey’s relations with Arab states UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, even Syria.
Before Oct. 7, 2023, it seemed that the U.S. vision of the Middle East was finally being reshaped. Washington reaching an implicit understanding with Tehran over its nuclear program under which Iran effectively halted any further progress in its nuclear program in return limited financial assistance. The United States worked to conclude a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, which would help encourage the kingdom to normalize relations with Israel. In addition, Washington announced plans to build a massive trade corridor connecting India to Europe via the Middle East in order to counter China’s growing influence in the region.
“Canceling the Equations”
Obstacles arose along the way, although tensions between Tehran and Washington have reduced compared to previous periods. The Israeli government is clearly adopting a right-wing stance, which was busy to increasing settlements in the West Bank. This leads to provoke the Palestinians. But US officials did not see Iran as an obstructive country “disrupting diplomatic activities and negotiations,” as it had recently resumed relations with several Arab governments, as Arab countries have already normalized relations with Israel.
Hamas then launched attacks on Israel, falling the region into a chaos and reversing the American vision. The militant group’s massive offensive from the Gaza saw its fighters enter a high-tech security border wall, occupy southern Israeli towns, kill about 1,200 people and take more than 240 hostages. The attack thus explained that the situation in the Middle East is unstable and ready to explode at any moment, while the attack sparked a strong Israeli military response, causing a humanitarian disaster in Gaza, killing many Palestinians and displacing many Palestinians and increasing the risk of regional war wider.
The dilemma of the Palestinians has once again returned to the forefront. Given that Iranian support plays a crucial role in Hamas’s resilience and military capabilities, Iran’s regional military capabilities now appear very strong and it also appears that Tehran has taken a more confident stance recently, despite not wanting a wider conflict Hamas’ show of force has since developed its position with exchanges of fire between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah militias and other Iranian-affiliated groups that have fired missiles at the forces. This revived the equations at the regional level, which was looking for open gates to stability.
“How the United States maintains its regional position”
The United States still has a lot of influence in the Middle East, but its support for Israel has certainly challenged its credibility in the region, which means that the United States will have to formulate a new strategy for the Middle East, a strategy that recognizes the realities that has long ignored by them. For example, Washington can no longer ignore the Palestinian issue. In fact, it must make resolving this conflict the focus of its efforts in the region, but this will be difficult for the United States In 1948 it is continued unambiguously by the White House administration.
In addition, Washington must deal with the increase of Tehran’s power that has shaken and destabilized the Middle East. If the United States wants to ensure peace and stability in the region, of course, its policy with Tehran must be in the interest of regional stability. If Washington does not work on this option, which involves better coordination with Iran, it must find new ways to end Iran and its proxies, but the question is whether the United States fully supports the option of excluding Iran from the region? In any case, the United States must work in the direction of reducing the tendency of Iran and its proxies to challenge the regional order, in particular requiring a new agreement that stops Iran’s progress toward acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.
“Common challenges; Iran’s nuclear program”
There is one issue on which there is consistent consensus among Israel, the United States, and most Arab countries, which is Iran’s nuclear program. All these countries believe that the continued expansion of the program is one of the most destabilizing developments in the Middle East. As Tehran moves closer to nuclear weapons capability, Israel may intensify its covert attacks on Iran. If it appears that Tehran is close to achieving nuclear weapons, Israel may launch a clear and immediate attack on the country. By extension, such an attack would quickly draw the United States into direct conflict, and if Riyadh and Washington signed a defense pact, Saudi Arabia might also become a party in any war.
