Iran: Facing a new strategic situation

Iran is currently facing a number of struggles on its external movement which Iran is currently facing a number of struggles on its external movement which making it face unprecedented influence on external its roles.making it face unprecedented influence on external its roles.
AM:11:51:09/08/2019
It can be said that Iran was the regional power that benefited, directly or indirectly, and perhaps unintentionally or conditionally, from the overall transformations that the region has experienced since the events of September 2001.

Translation Unit
Academic Board of the Center

Iran is currently facing a number of struggles on its external movement which making it face unprecedented influence on external its roles.

 

Iran has returned to a prominent position in the political map of the Levant and on the agenda of attention to developments in the Middle East and the parties to strategic transformation. Iran has certainly not been absent from the region's defenses and capabilities, but in its active presence over the past two decades, it has not been considered a pressing target for international powers, not even regional rivals, although it has suffered US and international blockade and sanctions since the Islamic Republic was proclaimed. It can be said that Iran was the regional power that benefited, directly or indirectly, and perhaps unintentionally or conditionally, from the overall transformations that the region has experienced since the events of September 2001.

 

 

Today, Iran appears to be facing a new strategic in the region and in its international relations. Not because its regional adversaries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are in better shape, but because there are growing indications that Iran's regional expansion has exceeded the limits of Iranian self-power, because of the conflict between Tehran's goals and Moscow's goals in Syria, on the one hand, and because the Trump administration's decision, on the one hand, Another, withdrawal from the nuclear deal, and perhaps not entirely calculated, opened the door to a deepening crisis in the Gulf, of which Iran is at the center.

 

 

Crisis in the Gulf and its neighbors

 

The United States, with support from a number of Western European countries, accuses Iran of carrying out attacks on four ships, including two Saudi tankers near the port of Fujairah, on May 13, 2019, and attacks on two tankers, one owned by a Norwegian company and the other by a Japanese company in the Gulf of Oman. June 13. On both occasions, sophisticated explosive devices were used, which are unlikely to be owned or controlled by terrorist groups. The Americans say they have unquestionable intelligence evidence pointing to Iranian responsibility for the attacks, while Tehran denies responsibility.

 

 

Iran may appear to be a major beneficiary in the two incidents, which carry threatening messages to Iran's regional adversaries, the global market and international powers, rather than an attempt to disrupt Gulf navigation or ignite war. However, whoever pushes the region to the brink, this situation may serve Tehran's relentless endeavors to break the impasse of the blockade and sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran, and all the companies and countries it can deal with economically, commercially and financially. Here, the worsening tension is in the Gulf, and the foundations of the crisis are considering on its waters and on the countries around its coast.

 

 

Adhering to his election promises, Trump announced in May 2018 that the United States would withdraw from the Obama administration's nuclear deal with Iran in the summer of 2015 and approved by other permanent members of the Security Council, as well as Germany. Some saw that Trump's abolition of the US commitment to the deal was intended to please Washington's Middle East allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel. But Trump's motives were certainly purely American, not only because he had already announced his intention to withdraw from the deal during his campaign, but also because the US political scene had been divided over the deal from the beginning and once it was announced, which led to the failure of the Obama administration to obtain the approval of Congress.

 

 

End of one stage and another beginning

The hostile strategic environment, which is taking shape against Iran, does not mean that the latter's regional influence will collapse overnight. The forces that succeed in building regional expansion of this magnitude, especially the medium-sized powers such as Iran, governed by an established ideological system, do not lose strategically suddenly or quickly.

 

The United States, of course, does not seek to start a war with Iran, nor does the latter want a war. Both sides, for reasons of fears of consequences, avoid starting a war. The Islamic Republic has lived with US and international sanctions for decades. There is no indication that the regime is afraid of a mass popular protest, but that it shows great confidence in its ability to control and quell any internal opposition. Before the Arab uprisings, no country in the Middle East faced protests the size of Iran in 2009, but the regime was able to counter the protests with great security efficiency.

 

Over the past few years, Iran's strategic expansion of the regional environment has reached an unprecedented level, armed with an ideological determination, an ambitious vision of national interests and an entrepreneurial spirit to capture the opportunities created by the mistakes of regional adversaries and the United States.

 

Iranian influence has expanded in a way the modern Iranian state has not known since its formation in the early 20th century. Iran may benefit from its historical experience of strategic expansion despite the blockade and isolation to bypass tough US sanctions. However, it is not the first force in history to go beyond management's overstretch and affordability. When a force fails to recognize the boundary between the necessary strategic expansion, which goes beyond the limits of self-esteem, retreat becomes inevitable.



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