“Back” Scenario of ISIS to Guerrilla's War

The organization of the Islamic state has been able to "advocate" within years of promoting its brand as an organization that expands geographically and encompasses a vast area of land.
Isis at the very least will be able to create safe havens for him to ensure his survival for years.

Translation Unit
Academic Board of the Center

Counter-terrorism files  

The organization of the Islamic state has been able to "advocate" within years of promoting its brand as an organization that expands geographically and encompasses a vast area of land.


The organization was behind the idea of the so-called "caliphate" in strengthening its ability to attract more elements that were eager to live in the state of the Caliphate with its imagined purity. But the concept of create the caliphate changed to structure of terrorist organization (Isis) and the organization will lose its territory of its caliphate which leave its effects on nature and future of the terrorist phenomena.


The question of the future of Isis and the prospects of the organization's rise may have increased again with the emergence of a number of reports of continuing threats to the organization and restructuring of its structure, similar to the report issued by the Inspector General of the US Department of Defense in February 2019, Not to mention the State Department's February 4, 2019 statement that "the organization of the Islamic state remains a major terrorist threat.".


Features Shift:


The disappearance of its presence in certain areas of northern Iraq and the village of Baguoz Faqani in Syria; the transformation of the organizational strategy from the ideas of the state and the administration of populated areas that culminated in the announcement of the so-called Caliphate in June 2014, changed to Terrorist guerrilla war.


The voice of this transformation has emerged early, especially with the sound recording issued before the death of the former spokesman for the organization, "Dahesh" "Abu Muhammad al-Adnani," in May 2016, under the title "and live from the neighborhood of evidence," the statement considered at the time preparation for the elements of the organization for some time after the loss of territory they control in Syria and Iraq.











The new guerrilla strategy of "Daqash" in Syria and Iraq was founded on reaping the experiences of the organization, and the historical renaissance between the stages of vulnerability and empowerment. On October 12, 2017, Al-Nabaa, a weekly newspaper published by Daqash, published a report in which the organization's history was called, specifically in 2008 when the group was exhausted in the fight against US and Iraqi forces. The leader of the group, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi "We now have nowhere to stand for a quarter of an hour," he said, prompting the organization to take unconventional ways of fighting and resorting to guerrilla strategy.


This expansion of the guerrilla strategy was linked to the organization's conviction that it would not be possible to confront the forces backed by air cover. The organization then sought to preserve the remaining human elements and try to reorganize it as part of a long-term strategy of attrition through these "Four main components:


1.Geographical support:

Geography in Syria and Iraq gives "opportunities" to achieve a post-caliphate strategy, or Hassan Hassan, a researcher on terrorism issues, the Desert Strategy. The area is surrounded by desert and includes a long stretch of the border with Iraq. The region also divides the Euphrates River. It cannot be overlooked that these features may help "In the formulation of guerrilla strategy, in particular with the organization's experience in the terrain of the region.


The Syrian-Iraqi border area, stretching from Deir al-Zour and along the Euphrates River, may have enormous opportunities for the organization of Da'ash, especially as it is similar in its terrain to the border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan.


In a related context, "Daash" revealed interest in the area of Mount Hamrin and other areas with difficult terrain in northern Iraq, as the organization sought in those areas to build complexes of tunnels to hide and prepare for the new military strategy.


2 - Decentralization fighting:

The military pressure has called for a "push" the increasing trend towards decentralization in combat operations inside Syria and Iraq, and this may be referred to in the newspaper "news" of the organization in its edition of August 16, 2017. In an interview with the newspaper The city was divided into small autonomous regions, self-sufficient, so that combatants do not need supplies from other regions and make decisions independently.


3 - Sleeping cells:

Nicholas Heras (Middle East researcher) points out that "an essential part of a" calling "strategy in Deir al-Zour to move forward is that the organization has a network of clients in the local population to make it difficult any administration that will provide security and services." Many reports assume that the long period of demilitarization by the Syrian forces to liberate the eastern side of the Euphrates River allowed for "time" to create sleeper cells in the areas from which they had withdrawn.


4. Specific operations:

Despite the decline attacks in Syria and Iraq during the year 2018 compared to previous years, the organization still has the ability to carry out the quality of effective operations to serve its guerrilla strategy. This type of operation involves mass-casualty attacks, effective bombings, checkpoint overruns, security locations, and personal assassinations.





According to estimates by Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Da'ash has offensive cells operating permanently in at least 27 areas inside Iraq. The organization has carried out more than 1,400 quality operations inside Iraq in the past first 10 months in 2018, including 762 explosions, 135 attempted mass-casualty attacks, 270 improvised explosive device roadside bombs, and attempted to exceed 120 checkpoints or military centers of the Iraqi security forces, and 148 assassinations of individuals such as tribal chiefs, Members of the provincial council or security force commanders.

Finally, the crises of the state in Syria and Iraq remain the most dangerous dimension in the scenario of the resurgence of "urging" again. The crises that led to the succession of "preachers" still exist in one way or another, both in Syria where the protracted conflict and the interference of many parties in it, The problems of reintegrating the Sunnis and the differences between the central government and the Kurds in the north. The continuation of this scene will be in favor of a "preacher," and not necessarily that the organization regain the territory it controlled, but at the very least will be able to create safe havens for him to ensure his survival for years.

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